Are there any math majors among us?

[samsung]

You might want to move this thread to general, not sure where it belongs. Hopefully some curious statistition runs with this.

I have a theory and I know there is an equation in this mess somewhere that says you have X percent chance of ending up with an implant. But I'm not wicked smart enough to factor it. Here goes:

There are @329.5 million people in the U.S.

Approximately 1/2 of those have a pecker. So call it 164M men. Of those men, we should discount those under age 18. If numbers from 2010 census hold true, 24 percent of all people are under 18. So that is @80 million. Of those 1/2 are men, so 40M. So subtract 40 million from 164M=124 million.

Let's say conservatively of these eligible 124 million men, approx. 15% have peyronie's or some sort of catastrophic ED. That is 18 million men.

Of these 18 million men, there must exist statistics on how many implants are done each year.

Mix in a whole host of things like death rate, etc. Stir.

There must exist stats somewhere of how many forums like this exist and how many unique members there are for each. You can then assume there is overlap between these forums in members. Do some math magic with those numbers.

So, my point is there must exist some sort of way of stating within certain mathematical bounds, you are X percent certain of getting an implant within X number of years.

My whole point to this, is that after much reading it seems to me largely that after a certain number of years of struggling, a large amount of people here will probably end up with an implant despite their best efforts and I bet there is a math formula in here somewhere that can tell you to within a decimal point what that likelihood will be.

I think this could be an excellent way to guide decision making. You caint argue with numbers. Would save a lot of trouble.  

[Hawk]

Since most implants are sold by two companies I think it is easy to get the numbers although some fly in from other countries.  in the end, the chances of any given male getting an implant in his lifetime are slim because needing one and getting one are two different things.  As I mentioned in another topic, I went out to eat with several couples in their 60's and 70's and the attitude seemed to be that they did not have sex and were fine with that.  Part of being fine might be that they did not know about a solution.

[tomas1]

That's a good point, Hawk. I know way more couples who simply stopped having sex than those implanted (just me).
At one time I didn't think I'd go through the operation, but horniness won.

I wonder what that ratio is?
Maybe 10% implanted?
I guess pills and injections need to be adjusted for?

Maybe the percentage is higher for Peyronies sufferers?

[samsung]

I agree. And there are a million other factors here
What I am saying is that I know there is a math equation in this somewhere that would aid in decision making. For example, if I went to the dentist and he said, well, there is a 98% chance you will die from an infection in the next 72 hours if you don't get a root canal, well, decision is made. I would not risk my life over 2 percent.

Similarly, if there was a 75% percent chance in the next 5 years I will be an implant candidate I certainly would not waste my time with arginine and traction, etc. I would just get it over with.

What I'm really getting at is once you are diagnosed there must be someone, somewhere that could predict your eventual outcome. With math. Would save a heck of a lot of aggravation. In my opinion, it would seem an implant should be offered as a first line treatment if the eventuality of you needing one is anywhere above 60 percent. If Peyronies Disease is progressive, if ED is progressive. If both are incurable. If all treatments are basically hogwash, then why wait?

[Hawk]

As best I can tell the statistic that you are really asking for (since most who need an implant never even consider one) is what are the odds A man in general or you specifically will need an implant.

The typical diagnosis of needing an implant is the inability to have intercourse that is satisfying to you and your partner.  If you cannot do that because of Erectile Dysfunction or deformity then you a most likely a candidate.  The caveat, however, is that not only do some men just give up on sex but some men are willing to use other means such as pill or injections and some are not.  They go straight to an implant even though pills might work.

The other caveat is that since you have no intention of attempting satisfying intercourse, how does this apply to you.  

It becomes clear that you cannot apply a mathematical formula to something that is so subjective.

If anyone else thinks there is some formula of even an accurate estimate please jump in.

[tomas1]

I had an interesting probability problem when I decided to get an implant.
I only know one man on the other forum who was implanted by my surgeon.
He got a bad infection and ended up in the hospital and nearly died.

Pretty bad odds, but I didn't have much to lose.
I was lucky, or maybe the odds weren't as bad as they seemed?

I've always been a risk taker and have the scars to prove it.

My dad went to the dentist, got a staph infection in his heart, and died at 35.
It was in 1943, so penicillin wasn't readily available for civilians.
I wish my dad had been in the service.